Friday, November 25, 2011

Visions of 2068

There have already been visions of what the United States might look like in the future if the "Occupy Wall Street" protests successfully bring about a "peaceful revolution" in the nation. Many people who see such a scenario envision change being achieved within the next several years. The socionomic model, however, hints that such change is decades, not just years, in the future.

Governments generally stay their course all the way to the bottom. The bottom, in this case of the current bear market, is the orthodox low point of Grand Supercycle wave [IV], which is projected to end in 2055. Only when the bottom is reached will governments start making the hard choices. Here are three examples:

1 -- The original Bill of Rights were introduced in Congress in 1789 and went into effect as amendments in 1791. The Constitution of the United States was adopted in 1787. The Bill of Rights were instituted shortly after the start of Grand Supercycle wave [III] in 1784. This event followed the end of the "Modern European Major Depression" that spanned from 1720 to 1784.

2 -- Reconstruction was instituted in 1865 and continued until 1877. This period represents a fundamental transformation of society in the United States in the aftermath of the Civil War. The Reconstruction was instituted shortly after the start of Supercycle wave (III) and followed the end of the "Long Depression" that spanned from 1835 - 1859.

3 -- The New Deal consisted of a series of economic programs aimed at getting the US economy back in gear. The New Deal started in 1933 and continued through 1936. The New Deal was launched shortly after the start of Supercycle wave (V) and followed the end of the Great Depression that spanned from 1929 - 1932. The best known parts of the New Deal are the Glass-Steagall Act (regulations on banking, was repealed in 1999), the Fair Labor Standard Act (sets a federal minimum wage and caps the work week at 40 hours a week, expected to be repealed in 2017), and the Social Security Act (this implemented Social Security for the elderly, expected to be repealed in 2017).

The visions and goals of "Occupy Wall Street" are a hint of what the United States might look like in the future. One of the leading activists of the "Occupy Wall Street" movement is Michael Moore, who recently put an article on Daily Kos, spelling out some of the goals of the movement. One of the goals is the implementation of a Second Bill of Rights that was first proposed by FDR in 1944, which would serve as an "economic bill of rights" that guaranteed the following:

1 -- Employment with a living wage
2 -- Housing
3 -- Medical Care
4 -- Education
5 -- Social Security
6 -- Freedom from unfair competition and monopolies

Once the current bear market is over, a new bull market, Grand Supercycle wave [V], will start. Governments won't start making the hard choices until the "Crisis of the Western World" has ended. The vision of reform in the United States by FDR in 1944 and Michael Moore from 2007 to present will eventually come to pass. Implementation of such reforms is expected to start in 2060 and could be completed in 2068.

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